The Commons

Built for Clay

Cold email when looking personal costs almost nothing: 1,200 prospects, 48 sellers, 180 days.

Demo by Armaan Kazi
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Finding

Replies collapse when looking personal gets far cheaper than targeting. Cheap targeting reverses it.

Try it

day 0 of 180

Color: trust in personal email. Dot: replied today.

Inbox size

0

Replies today

0

Average trust

70%

Sellers by strategy

Template12

Personalized12

Targeted12

Targeted + personalized12

Click a prospect.

Replies per day

500day 0day 180

Average trust

100%0day 0day 180

Sellers by strategy

480day 0day 180

All 25 cost pairs

Personal email cost
vs signal data cost
$0.30$0.60$1.50$3.00$5.00
$3.00
$1.00
$0.30
$0.10
$0.030

Number: replies, last 30 days over first 30. Color: ending trust.

Assumptions

None are measured. All live in src/app/demos/clay/model.ts.

Prospects / sellers / categories1,200 / 48 / 8
Seller budget$60 per day
Cost to send any email$0.05
Signal precision80% of targeted emails reach someone with the need
Attention3 to 8 emails read per prospect per day
Need6% of prospects per category, lasting about 30 days
Reply chance on a relevant email25% times (0.5 + perceived relevance)
Starting trust in personal-looking email70%, weighted as 10 emails of experience
MemoryEvidence fades 3% a day back toward the starting belief
Imitation15% daily chance to compare with a peer; 0.5% chance to try a random strategy
Strategies at day 012 sellers on each of the four

Built by Armaan Kazi. Not affiliated with Clay. A model, not data, built on Spence's 1973 signaling idea.